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UFC 291 Betting Insights: Can Justin Gaethje Upset Dustin Poirier?

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UFC 291 betting

This weekend sees the UFC back in action for July’s second pay-per-view with UFC 291 and the BMF title clash between Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje. The initial encounter between Poirier and Gaethje in 2018 was highly anticipated and didn’t disappoint, winning Fight of the Year accolades. Will the rematch deliver the same level of excitement, and what other fights on this 12-bout card offer both quality and betting opportunities? Let’s dive in.

As usual, all odds are provided by our partners at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
Straight Bets

Justin Gaethje, +125

You can find a comprehensive analysis of this bout here, but the essence is as follows: this match is thrilling, and the outcome is unpredictable. In their first showdown, Gaethje seemed on the verge of beating Poirier until a potent left hand abruptly ended the fight. Both fighters have improved since then, and this clash might surpass their initial bout in terms of intensity. However, the match remains a toss-up, giving Gaethje slightly more value at the offered odds.

Michel Pereira, +130

In the highlighted welterweight bout, Pereira faces Stephen Thompson in a match that is ostensibly a clash between capoeira and karate but will likely morph into a wrestling showdown. Pereira, known for his high-energy style and penchant for flashy moves, has shifted gears after two consecutive losses, focusing more on takedowns and avoiding energy-draining maneuvers. Against Thompson, Pereira is likely to double down on his grappling strategy for the win. As Thompson ages, his takedown defense weakens, and Pereira is capable enough to exploit that.

Michael Chiesa, +120

In the main card’s opening bout, Chiesa faces Kevin Holland after almost two years away from the Octagon. This could usually be a concern, but the matchup favors Chiesa. Holland’s weakness has always been his defensive wrestling, and while Chiesa may not be an all-star in takedowns, he’s competent and persistent. Given that Chiesa is a threatening player on top, this aligns well for him. Holland may be a more explosive striker, but if he can’t keep the fight standing, Chiesa could overpower him.

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC
Prop Bets

Jan Blachowicz by Decision, +350

In the co-main event, Blachowicz battles former middleweight champion Alex Pereira in his first UFC light heavyweight bout, a fight that looks tough for Pereira. Despite his impressive kickboxing credentials and devastating punching power, Pereira’s ground game leaves much to be desired.

Blachowicz is a well-rounded fighter with balanced striking and grappling abilities. He beat Adesanya (a more proficient defensive wrestler and technical striker, though less potent) by focusing on his ground game and adhering to strong defensive fundamentals. The same approach should serve him well in this match, and I favor Blachowicz to secure a win via decision.

Derrick Lewis by KO, +240

Despite three consecutive losses and four losses in his last five matches, Lewis could still upset the odds against Marcos Rogerio de Lima. Lewis’s losses have all been against top-10 opponents, and while de Lima has been winning, his competition doesn’t match Lewis’s. If Lewis were to fight the same opponents as de Lima, he’d likely fare well. I back Lewis due to his experience against top-tier opponents, which de Lima lacks.

If the fight drags beyond the initial three minutes, the altitude could play a crucial factor, but Lewis’s late-match power is formidable. I’m betting on “The Black Beast” for one final time.

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
Parlay of the Week

Bobby Green, -380

Green is set to battle Tony Ferguson in what might be the night’s most heartbreaking match. Former interim champion Ferguson, once considered one of the sport’s best, has suffered five consecutive losses. Green, though past his peak, is still a top-30 global competitor. He’ll likely dominate Ferguson’s boxing, and it remains to be seen whether he can secure a finish.

Gabriel Bonfim, -380

Bonfim is a promising, undefeated contender on the rise. At 25, he has already decimated several solid competitors. Trevin Giles, a capable veteran with clear weaknesses, represents the next step in Bonfim’s climb to the top-15.

Jake Matthews, -245

Despite a win over Andre Fialho, Matthews faced a setback against Matthew Semelsberger, leaving his career trajectory uncertain. Against a short-notice replacement like Darrius Flowers, who has inconsistent performance and defensive flaws, this seems like a good opportunity to bet on Matthews.

Combine these three bets for a parlay offering +131 odds.

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC
Longshot of the Week

Derrick Lewis by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 3, +1800

As mentioned earlier, if this fight extends beyond the first three minutes, it could turn ugly due to altitude affecting the fighters’ stamina. However, Lewis, despite being notorious for his cardio, remains a serious threat. With five third-round KOs in his career, a fatigued Rogerio de Lima might fall victim to a late surge from the “Third-Round Black Beast.”


UFC London was a light event betting-wise, and is soon to be forgotten. Let’s hope UFC 291 offers more excitement and successful bets for everyone.

Until next week, enjoy the matches, best of luck, and remember to bet responsibly!

This article’s information is purely for entertainment, news, and amusement purposes. It is the reader’s responsibility to understand and adhere to online betting regulations in their region before placing any online sports bets.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) about UFC 291 betting

What is UFC 291 and what are the main fights?

UFC 291 is the second pay-per-view event of July featuring a highly anticipated BMF title fight between Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje. Other main fights include Michel Pereira vs. Stephen Thompson and Michael Chiesa vs. Kevin Holland.

Are there any betting insights for the Poirier vs. Gaethje rematch?

The Poirier vs. Gaethje rematch is expected to be an electrifying bout. The odds slightly favor Gaethje at +125, offering good value for bettors. Both fighters have improved, making it a coin flip matchup with potential for high returns.

What are the prop bets to look out for?

Some notable prop bets include Jan Blachowicz by Decision at +350, as he faces Alex Pereira, who struggles on the ground. Derrick Lewis by KO at +240 is also promising, given his past losses were against top-10 competition. Additionally, a longshot bet is Derrick Lewis by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 3 at +1800, capitalizing on both fighters’ likely fatigue in the high altitude.

Any parlay recommendations?

A parlay with Bobby Green, Gabriel Bonfim, and Jake Matthews offers +131 odds. Green’s boxing skills against Tony Ferguson, Bonfim’s momentum against Trevin Giles, and Matthews’ favorable matchup against Darrius Flowers make this parlay appealing.

How should one approach betting on UFC 291?

When betting on UFC 291, consider researching each fighter’s recent performances, styles, and potential weaknesses. Be mindful of the odds and choose wisely between straight bets, prop bets, and parlays. Always gamble responsibly and be aware of online betting laws in your region.

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