Matt Brown backs Jake Paul for victory, yet cautions, ‘let your guard down against Nate Diaz, and he will make you pay the price’

Jake Paul is at a distinct advantage in his upcoming bout against Nate Diaz this Saturday.

Diaz’s lengthy MMA career gives him a wealth of overall experience, but Paul brings a professional boxing record of 6 wins, 1 loss and 4 knockouts to the table, not to mention his notable triumph over former UFC champion Anderson Silva. Further, Paul consistently competes at 185 pounds, the weight for his fight with Diaz, who has fought most of his career at a lighter weight class, thereby handing a significant size and power advantage to Paul.

UFC welterweight and boxing aficionado Matt Brown believes these factors favor Paul’s victory.

“I concur with the general consensus,” Brown shared on The Fighter vs. The Writer. “Every fight fan realizes that Jake is the more substantial athlete. He possesses a potent right punch. Against a southpaw, that’s the go-to offense.

“He’s likely to land that right punch a few times. He may seriously injure Nate. There’s a good chance he’ll score a TKO.”

However, Brown, who has followed Diaz’s 16-year UFC career closely, knows better than to write him off completely, especially considering a 10-round fight with Paul.

Diaz’s relentless forward pressure, capacity for doling out punishment without tiring, and knack for improving as he wears down his opponents could spell trouble for Paul. If Paul can’t secure an early knockout, Brown suggests Diaz could initiate a comeback, utilizing a high-volume strike approach, comparable to being slowly taken down by endless minor wounds.

“If Paul fails to land a knockout and Nate survives the initial rounds, and considering we’ve seen Jake tire — or perhaps not exhaust but lose momentum, grow slightly fatigued,” Brown expressed. “If Nate withstands those first few rounds, pushes forward, extending the fight to 10 rounds, that favors him. If he can survive the early onslaught and start wearing Jake down, we’ve all seen the damage Diaz can inflict once he’s worn his opponent out. Let your guard down against him, and he will make you pay the price.

“Surely, both fighters have their strategy. Jake aims to land powerful hits early, while Nate is focused on turning this into an endurance test, a full 10-round match.”

Brown, however, admits that despite Diaz’s potential for an upset, the UFC veteran faces substantial odds, which is why Brown predicts Paul’s win.

“I think Jake can likely fend him off, land a hefty right punch, bind him slightly, fatigue his arms, and repeat this process,” Brown opined. “It’s tough to see Diaz winning this fight with a 30-pound weight disadvantage.”

While Paul is a strong favorite in the betting markets, this only puts more pressure on his performance.

After a narrow loss to Tommy Fury in February, another defeat, particularly against a lighter, inexperienced professional boxer like Diaz, could seriously harm Paul’s career.

For Diaz, the scenario is different. As an underdog with a superstar status, another high-profile fight is almost guaranteed, regardless of the outcome against Paul.

“There’s immense pressure on [Paul],” Brown admitted. “Nate doesn’t have much at stake.

“Most people probably don’t expect him to win. He’s there for the paycheck. Of course, as a competitor and a fighter, he’ll want to win, but the stakes are considerably higher for Jake Paul.”

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More about Jake Paul vs. Nate Diaz fight

• Jake Paul’s Professional Boxing Record
• Nate Diaz’s UFC Profile
• The Fighter vs. The Writer Podcast
• Matt Brown’s UFC Profile